By Melissa Baltimore
Baltimore Watchdog Staff Writer
As the Maryland legislature prepares to vote on the final congressional redistricting maps next month, efforts by Maryland Democrats to maintain their tight majority in the U.S. House of Representatives could cost the seat of Andy Harris, Maryland’s only Republican House member.
The current electoral district map gives Maryland eight seats in the House of Representatives, seven of which are currently represented by Democrats. Harris represents the 1st Congressional District, which covers the entire Eastern Shore, plus portions of Harford, Baltimore, Carroll and Cecil counties.
“I think it’s possible that Democrats could get creative and draw the lines in such a way that they, if not eliminate that one seat, make that one seat more competitive for a Democrat candidate,” said John McTague, a professor of political science at Towson University.
The Maryland legislature has not yet provided a new legislative map, but two Democrats are running to challenge Harris this year, Maryland Matters has reported.
“Data now suggests that all eight seats in Maryland are expected to go Democrat because of the growth and the turnout of Democratic numbers,” Heather Mizeur, a former state delegate from Montgomery County and one of Harris’ challengers, told the Kent County News. “So, we’re really looking at an 8-0 map… Andy Harris is the most vulnerable Republican heading into the midterm election.”
Redistricting has cost Maryland House members their seats before. In 2002, Rep. Connie Morella lost her seat to Chris Van Hollen after the legislature redistricted Republican voters out of the 8th Congressional District and added Democratic voters from nearby cities.
“Redistricting alone can change the majority in the House of Representatives and that’s just irresistible,” McTague said. “That’s just irresistible for people who are professional politicians and professional partisans to let that kind of opportunity slip away.”
Congressional districts are redrawn every 10 years following the decennial census, which is used to determine how many representatives each state receives. The maps can influence which party controls the House. Over the years, politicians in both parties have been accused of gerrymandering, or drawing congressional districts in a way that heavily favors one party over the other.
In Maryland, while both the governor and the legislature suggest their own congressional maps, the legislature has the final say. Gov. Larry Hogan, a Republican, can veto the Democratic-controlled legislature’s map, but veto-proof majorities in both chambers of the General Assembly can override any dissent from the governor.
Hogan appointed a bipartisan commission in January to develop a map that did not consider partisan interests when drawing congressional districts. The Maryland Citizens Redistricting Commission, which included three Republicans, three Democrats and three independents, held several public hearings throughout the year and voted 8-1 last Wednesday to approve a nonpartisan map.
Under the commission’s proposal, the map was drawn to ensure that counties and neighborhoods were contained in the same congressional district as much as possible. For example, the entire city of Baltimore would be in the 7th Congressional District rather than being split between three districts, as it is today. The map also tried to keep Howard, Anne Arundel and Baltimore counties in their own districts. Howard and Ann Arundel, for example, are currently split into four districts.
The commission sent its map to Hogan, who formally accepted it Friday and plans to order a special session of the General Assembly on Dec. 6 to approve new congressional district lines that will be in effect until 2032. However, the legislature has created its own redistricting committee that can essentially ignore Hogan’s proposal.
Member of the Legislative Redistricting Advisory Commission did not return phone calls or email requests for an interview.
“Right now, we’re one of the most gerrymandered states in the country,” said Kathleen Smero, the chairwoman of the Baltimore County Republican Central Committee. “So, while we’re not going to sit around and wait, I have real concerns that the Democratic-controlled legislature in Maryland is going to have any semblance of fair maps and represent citizens fairly.”
Smero said that in spite of population shifts and census considerations, the goal of redistricting should always be to preserve what she called “the three C’s: compact, contiguous, and a sense of community.”
According to Smero, areas such as Maryland’s 7th Congressional District go against the three C’s. The 7th District includes parts of Baltimore County, Baltimore City, and Prince George’s County while covering swaths of Parkton and Baldwin in northern Maryland, which is “farm country,” Smerno said
“I really don’t understand how that can be a sense of community when those lines are drawn all the way up there,” Smero said.
But Democrats dispute the notion that the odd congressional lines are because of partisan gerrymandering, saying Maryland’s strange shape as a state causes strangely shaped congressional districts.
“A lot of people don’t realize it,” said Linda Dorsey-Walker, who serves on the Baltimore County Democratic Central Committee, “but part of the reason that Maryland was identified as one of the most gerrymandered states in the country is because of just the natural state of our shape.”
Unlike many states in the Midwest, which are defined by their rectangular shape and consistent geography, Maryland’s unusual shape is scattered with tributaries and waterways, including the Chesapeake Bay, Dorsey-Walker said.
McTague said that reducing partisan gerrymandering is “a matter of collective action.”
“There would need to be something like a Supreme Court decision,” McTague said. “Something that would impose a national standard that says all 50 states are going to redraw lines in a way that is fair.”
The prospects of the Supreme Court taking action to stop gerrymandering are slim, given its rulings on two cases three years ago.
Lamone v. Benesik and Gill v. Whitford were two Supreme Court cases from 2018 that unsuccessfully challenged partisan gerrymandering in Maryland and Wisconsin, respectively, said Dr. Jonathan Hensley, a professor of political science at Towson University.
In deciding these cases, the court ruled that voters cannot challenge such gerrymanders in the court solely because they advantage one party over the other, said Hensley.
“When legislatures in Maryland, and other states, draw new legislative districts, they now know they are free to engage in partisan gerrymandering,” said Hensely, “and it will be almost impossible for such gerrymanders to be successfully challenged in court.”
Despite promising his constituency to only run for six terms, Harris told WBALTV that his decision to run for a seventh term this year was out of concern for the “pushback from liberals and socialists.”
“The bottom line is this fight is not over,” Harris said on WBALTV. “We have very serious threats. And in the end, you know, it’s going be up to the people in the 1st Congressional District.”