Hogan could face uphill battle should he seek 2024 GOP presidential nomination

By Caitlyn Freeman
Baltimore Watchdog Staff Writer

With buzz surrounding a possible presidential run in 2024, experts say Gov. Larry Hogan faces a tough road ahead trying to find his place as a moderate in a Republican Party that has shifted to the right in recent years.

Hogan, who’s been governor since 2015, has positioned himself as a moderate within the GOP. He took an aggressive stance on pandemic restrictions and went against the party line to speak out against former President Donald Trump several times. 

On the policy side, Hogan has taken a more traditional Republican approach.

A May 2020 article published by The Maryland Reporter said Hogan vetoed several bills last year that the Democratic-led state legislature passed, including one that pushed for an additional $577 million in state funding for Maryland’s Historically Black Colleges and Universities. More recently, The Baltimore Sun reported that he vetoed three of five bills that focused on police reform.

Recently, Hogan has made several appearances on Sunday shows in an apparent effort to increase his national presence, leading some to believe his eyes are set on the White House in 2024. In December 2020, his political advocacy group, An America United, released a video starring Hogan attempting to rally the GOP to unite the party after their 2020 loss. 

A source close to the governor said that “there are no plans to announce” a presidential run at this time, but Hogan “hasn’t ruled [running] out.” The source also said Hogan is focusing his current attention on the COVID-19 pandemic and vaccine. 

John McTague, a political science professor at Towson University (TU), said Hogan will likely face struggles within the GOP if he runs in 2024.

“I mean, he has, I think, positioned himself in such a way that if the political environment is right for him, he can run,” said McTague, who focuses on American politics and political parties. “Looking at it right now, I don’t think it is right for him to run. I think he would be a credible general election candidate. I just don’t think there’s a chance he would ever win a Republican primary.”

McTague said Hogan’s relationship with Trump can lead to potential struggles because “Trump still dominates the Republican Party.” 

Paul McCartney, a political science professor at TU, said Hogan’s success will depend on where the Republican Party is in four years and if Trump still leads it. 

“Four years is enough time for … memories to get resettled and new dynamics to emerge,” McCartney said. “And it’s unclear that Trump can maintain the grip he has over the full four years right now.”

He said that the 2022 midterm election will provide a sense of how both the Republican and Democratic parties will be. He said that while Trump will maintain a large constituency within the party, “whoever becomes the standard-bearer […] will be able to unite most of the party.”

House Minority Leader Jason Buckel, R-Allegany, said he doesn’t know if Hogan will run for president and would “be surprised if [Hogan] knew.” 

Richard Vatz, a professor at TU, said he thinks Hogan will run for national office at some point either as a Senate or presidential candidate. 

“Hogan’s appearance of moderate responsibility could carry him forward, but Maryland’s knee-jerk support for [Democrats] makes it tough,” said Vatz, a political commentator on Maryland politics. 

In 2019, Hogan said he wasn’t interested in a run for senator, according to an article by the Sun. However, Vatz said a senatorial run against Sen. Chris Van Hollen, D-Md., in 2022 would be easier than a presidential campaign. He said Hogan’s “clear contempt” for Trump would make running for president difficult. 

During the aftermath of the 2020 election, Hogan spoke out against Trump’s claims of election fraud and recognized President Joe Biden’s win when it was announced on Nov.7 while others in the GOP refused to do so. The source close to Hogan said the governor felt a “moral duty to speak out about some of the lies that [were] told” about the 2020 election. 

In the days following the Jan 6 attack on the U.S. Capitol, Hogan called for Trump to resign or for then Vice President Mike Pence to invoke the 25th Amendment to remove the president, an action most in the GOP opposed. 

Yvette Lewis, chair of the Maryland Democratic Party, said Hogan would have a difficult time running for national office as a Republican.

“The Republican Party is the party of [Trump],” said Lewis, who’s served as chair since 2011. “He has spoken out against [Trump], he doesn’t have a place in the Republican Party as it exists today. So, he may try to run; I just don’t think he would stand a chance of winning anything.”

She also said that there’s “zero chance” Hogan could beat incumbent Van Hollen in a Senate race. 

“He will hold on to his seat because the people of Maryland respect [Van Hollen], and they appreciate all that he has done for us,” Lewis said. 

Diarra Robertson, chair of the Department of History & Government at Bowie State University, said that he couldn’t predict if Hogan would run but thinks he may consider it.

“I think there is a yearning amongst a certain wing of the Republican Party, more of the older kind of Rockefeller-, Nixonian-wing of the Republican Party, that a more traditional moderate may be able to enter the presidential freight for 2024,” Robertson said.

Robertson is skeptical of Hogan’s ability to flip Maryland, a notable blue stronghold, in a presidential election, but feels he could be a “very viable candidate if he chose to run for a Senate position.”

Others disputed the notion that the Republican Party is in a midst of a civil war between Trump and anti-Trump members.

Dennis Betzel, the second vice chair of the Baltimore City Republican Central Committee, said he is hesitant to label the current GOP as being split. 

“I wouldn’t say a split, I’d say we’re a large party,” Betzel said. 

In terms of his place within the GOP, Buckel said Hogan has “done his best” as a Republican governor in a blue state and that he’s not sure his “political positions as governor of Maryland could represent him as president of the United States.”

Betzel said there’s a “good possibility” that Hogan will run for president, adding that he “has as good a chance as anyone” to win. 

McTague said that as a candidate, Hogan could provide the GOP with a “clean break from Trump-style politics” and a return to focusing on values they previously emphasized. He said he thinks of Hogan as an “economic conservative” rather than someone focused on being a “culture warrior,” but he doesn’t anticipate the party making the shift within the next four years. 

“A [Hogan]-lead Republican Party would mean the Republican Party is no longer focused primarily on immigration and threats to American culture and American identity and is instead focused more on being, you know, conservative fiscal stewards again, which they’ve really given up in the Trump years,” McTague said. 

McCartney agreed and said Hogan could appeal to Democrats if he won the nomination. 

“This all depends on how the narratives play out,” McCartney said. “What happened on Jan. 6 is a pivotal moment in American history insofar as it’s attributed to extreme partisanship. Someone who has cross-party appeal that seems genuine could have appeal on that basis. And Hogan, because he’s been a popular governor of a blue state, can make a more credible case for that than almost anybody in American politics.”