The future of robo-umpires
Article by MIKE MILLS, Podcast by GLENN KAPLAN
Baltimore Watchdog Staff Writers
What this story covers
One of the most important jobs in baseball is that of the umpire. As technology advances, automated programs are being developed that would allow for more accurate calls when it comes to the strike zone. But at what cost?
Why it matters
Sports are a crucial part of American society, and umpires allow games to run smoothly and fairly. Automation has come to many industries, leaving some employees out of work. Some wonder if umpires are next.
John Porter spent decades behind the plate as a baseball umpire – from Little League to the collegiate level. As commissioner of the Mid-Atlantic Collegiate Umpires – an organization that specializes in umpire training – and supervisor of umpires for the Colonial Athletic Association, Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference and Capital Athletic Conference, Porter spends plenty of time around people who make a living calling balls and strikes.
[pullquote]“There’s an art to umpiring and there’s a science to it, but there’s a third component that’s maybe even more important – and that is personality.” – John Porter, former umpire[/pullquote]
Inevitably, he hears questions about the future of his profession: Could technology soon replace – or at least greatly reduce the need for – umpires?
Porter has little doubt that technology will continue to assist on-field umpires and likely have a growing presence in baseball. But he’s confident that umpires still have a future.
“There’s an art to umpiring and there’s a science to it, but there’s a third component that’s maybe even more important – and that is personality,” Porter said.
Anyone can make calls on the field, but in order to climb the ranks as an umpire, you have to have charisma and leave a positive impression on players and coaches, according to Porter.
Still, technological advances, such as an automated strike zone, have led to speculation among baseball enthusiasts that umpires’ jobs will soon be in jeopardy.
Search for the phrase “robot umpires” on Twitter, and you’ll see hundreds of fans complaining about a strike that should’ve been a ball or vice versa. The outcry from fans is due, in large part, to the automated visuals they see on television. A computerized strike zone shows fans the exact location of the pitch.
Give us Robot Umpires already! @MLBpic.twitter.com/Lrmwjl6SH1
— Tuve’s Tongue ? (@TuvesTongue) April 21, 2019
Baseball purists argue that automation will eliminate the human element in the game. Those in favor of automation say it’s unfair to players and coaches when calls are obviously wrong, and it’s unfair that umpires are left in the dark while fans are able to identify balls and strikes from home.
Artificial intelligence has already eliminated jobs on assembly lines and behind cash registers and switchboards. It’s not farfetched to think that technology could supplant jobs in sports. The phrase “photo finish” has become cliché in racing. No longer does someone wait at the finish line to snap a photo. Automation tracks each horse or car and is able to tell exactly who won.
Even if it’s 50 years in the future, the elimination of human umpires is possible, according to Matt Snyder, an MLB columnist for CBS Sports.
“At that point, all bets are off,” Snyder said. “I think eventually umpires’ jobs will be threatened.”
The state of strike zone automation
In early March, Major League Baseball announced a three-year partnership with the Atlantic League of Professional Baseball, an independent league. Atlantic League players are highly experienced, having progressed through professional baseball’s developmental levels (A, AA and AAA). More than 40 percent of the league’s players have played in the Major League. This partnership will allow MLB to closely monitor experimental rule changes in the Atlantic League, including using tracking technology to help umpires call balls and strikes.
If the process goes smoothly, MLB may implement an automated umpiring system in future seasons. In an interview with The Athletic, MLB commissioner Rob Manfred spoke about the possible use of robo-umps in the big leagues.
“I think we are much closer than we were a year ago to having the technological capability to actually call the strike zone,” Manfred said. “The accuracy is way up — way better than what it was a year ago. The technology continues to move … and it actually moved a little faster than I might have thought.”
An automated strike zone takes the power of calling balls and strikes away from umpires and puts it in the hands of PITCHf/x technology.
PITCHf/x is the creation of Sportvision, a Chicago-based company that is responsible for the yellow 1st-and-10 line on football broadcasts, as well as car tracking in NASCAR.
PITCHf/x uses three cameras to triangulate a baseball’s position in space from the moment it leaves the pitcher’s hand.
The technology is similar to what fans see at home during broadcasts of the game. The idea isn’t to take away umpires but to give them access to the best information in order to make the correct call. Whether it be by having an umpire in the booth announce the call over the public address system or have someone radio down to the home plate ump, getting the call correct is the main objective.
Strike zone automation is the only form of technology that baseball is seriously considering.
However, as Kevin McFarland notes in an article for Wired, the technology is not entirely accurate – yet. The cameras stops tracking the ball a few feet from the plate, instead analyzing the trajectory to come up with a predicted location within an inch of where it actually shows up.
Past attempts at strike zone automation
In June 2016, fans got a taste of the robo-ump in an independent league game between the San Rafael Pacifics and Pittsburgh Diamonds.
For one night only, the Pacifics gave PITCHf/x a chance, and former MLB outfielder Eric Byrnes was behind the plate for it, playing the role of umpire.
Since his retirement, Byrnes has worked with MLB Network as an analyst; he even spent a season playing with the Pacifics. After becoming familiar with PITCHf/x, it was his idea to use the technology to call balls and strikes.
From the fan’s perspective, it looked like any ordinary game. However, Byrnes had the balls and strikes fed to him using PITCHf/x data.
Sportvision, the creator of PITCHf/x, has made it clear that its technology is only for balls and strikes. Every other aspect of the game is in the hands of umpires.
At one point during the game, a line drive was hit into right field, and an umpire ruled it fair. It’s a questionable call: “not our system!” says one the Sportvision representatives in attendance.
In a Bleacher Report article, Byrnes said strike zone automation is coming. However, he dismissed the idea that human umpires should feel threatened by technology.
“One of the biggest misconceptions of this is that I’m trying to get rid of umpires and replace them with robots,” Byrnes said.
Byrnes says it’s unfair that umpires don’t have access to the same information that millions of fans have at home. He wants to make the job of the home plate umpire easier.
You. Sold. Out. To. The. Robots! RT @byrnes22 Just like replay, the automated strike zone is intended to assist umpires, NOT eliminate them
— Keith Olbermann (@KeithOlbermann) July 28, 2015
Not surprisingly, umpires are wary of automation
[pullquote]“Obviously the umpires make mistakes now, but replacing them with ineffective tech doesn’t seem like the answer. I’m for automation, but it has to be at the point where it doesn’t get anything wrong.” — Matt Synder, baseball writer [/pullquote]
Porter has concerns about the capability of an automated strike zone.
“Those machines that are calling balls and strikes are not always accurate,” Porter said. “Because in order to get the balls and strikes right, you’ve got to consider a three-dimensional plate.”
Porter questions whether an automated strike zone can properly decipher the width and depth of the plate.
“A pitch can go into the strike zone by barely nipping the bottom corner of the plate and be a strike when it doesn’t look like a strike,” Porter said. “Curveballs and breaking pitches that are caught in one place may not register in the same way because the machine may not have the capability to detect the slight movements of the pitch.”
At a young age, Little League players learn that the strike zone extends from the top of the knees to the chest. Porter doubts that the technology would be able to adjust to the height of each hitter.
“How do you register those strike zones when the knee and the shoulder are different with every batter that comes up?,” Porter said.
Although strike zone automation has yet to be tested for a full season, there are potential solutions to Porter’s concerns with the calculation of breaking pitches.
TrackMan, a similar system to PITCHf/x, has the ability to detect the tilt, horizontal break and vertical break of the baseball.
However, there’s much more to baseball than balls and strikes. Umpires are responsible for, among other things, handling arguments, calling balls fair or foul, and calling base runners safe or out. According to Porter, having command of such a competitive environment is one of the most rewarding and important aspects of umpiring.
Coaches are going to see a close play in favor of their team, according to Porter. For example, in the 2012 American League Division Series, Baltimore Orioles outfielder Nate McLouth launched a ball down the right field line. It was called foul on the field, but even after replay, it was still unclear whether it was actually foul or a home run. Orioles manager Buck Showalter will always see it as a home run, and Yankees’ manager Joe Girardi will always say it was clearly foul.
Getting zealous coaches to understand and respect an umpire’s point of view is an aspect of baseball that is often overlooked by fans. The ability to mediate an intense situation on a field full of passionate players is a delicate art that technology could never replace, Porter said.
Questions about accuracy have also led to questions over when and how strike zone automation should be implemented.
“Obviously the umpires make mistakes now, but replacing them with ineffective tech doesn’t seem like the answer,” Snyder said. “I’m for automation, but it has to be at the point where it doesn’t get anything wrong.”
Before jumping on the automation bandwagon, Snyder suggests repositioning the umpire in order to call balls and strikes more accurately.
“I should add that last year on MLB Network [Former New York Yankees manager], Joe Girardi pointed out it would be easier for umpires to stand behind the pitcher’s mound to call balls and strikes instead of wearing a mask from behind the plate because they’d be able to better see exactly where the ball crossed the plate, and I tend to agree with him,” Snyder said.
Are umpire mistakes reason enough to use robo-umps?
[infogram id=”baseball_2-1hkv2nol0w7p4x3?live”]
Like most people, Tom O’Hara gets up in the morning and readies himself for work – putting on his uniform and driving to the office.
However, O’Hara’s workplace doesn’t have fluorescent lighting, cubicles or phones. His office is under the watchful eyes of thousands of spectators and stadium lights. O’Hara began umpiring baseball games in 1969 after he got out of the Navy. With 50 years of experience at the high school and college level, O’Hara has missed his share of calls.
During a game between University of Maryland, Baltimore County and University of Delaware, O’Hara was having a bad day behind the plate.
“No matter how hard I tried, I was calling the pitches wrong,” O’Hara said. “Finally, I said to the catcher of UMBC, ‘Look when the pitch comes in, if you think it’s a strike, just hold your glove there for a split second. If you think it’s a ball, when you catch it, drop your glove.’ And I called balls and strikes, when they were on defense, the rest of the game that way.”
Although O’Hara is comfortable with using automation to assist in calling balls and strikes, he’s wary of technology eliminating the human aspect of baseball.
“If you want [strike zone automation], that’s fine,” O’Hara said. “I don’t care. But I feel like it takes the humanism out of the game. People – for some reason – love going to the games and yelling at the umpire. There won’t be anybody to yell at. I kind of think it would take some of the fun out of the game.”
What would the loss of human umpires mean for baseball?
Well, for one, it might eliminate iconic arguments between umpires and managers. Along with being a Hall of Fame manager, Baltimore Orioles legendary manager Earl Weaver was enemy No. 1 in the eyes of umpires.
According to a Boston University study, MLB umpires made 34,294 incorrect ball and strike calls in 2018. That’s 14 incorrect calls per game by the best umpires on the planet.
The study suggests a combination of technology and tech-assisted umpires as possible solutions, including total strike zone automation or fitting home plate umpires with an earpiece, so they could easily receive ball and strike calls from a third party.
However, how do those actually affected by the calls feel about robo-umps?
Coach and player thoughts
Mistakes made by MLB umpires are nothing compared to the lower levels of baseball. Washington College’s (Md.) head coach Cory Beddick doubts his team will ever see the likes of strike zone automation.
“The funny thing is, when you watch professional umpires – more specifically major league umpires – their strike zone is normally pretty accurate,” Beddick said. “The irony is that where the strike zone is poor is in low level college baseball, high school, etc., where this type of technology would never end up due to factors such as cost.”
Regardless of the level of baseball, Jordan Moore, a senior catcher at Stevenson University, knows how important the relationship between player and umpire is to the game.
“Establishing a good, positive and relatable relationship is vital to you and your team’s success,” Moore said. “A good relationship can cause a close call to go your way, which eventually could lead to a close game ending in your favor.”
As a catcher, Moore spends the majority of the game with the umpire breathing down his neck. This makes the umpire/catcher relationship unlike any other on the field.
“From the handshake at home plate to start off the game, you’re with each other from start to finish, sharing the same air space,” Moore said.
Generally, there’s small talk to try and get the umpire/catcher relationship to go in a positive direction, according to Moore. Something along the lines of, “How’s your season going?” or “How’s the clubhouse?”
Although Moore likes the idea of having flawless umpires, he loves the fact that the human element is a part of the game.
“As a catcher, it’s my job to win the umpire over and to protect him at all costs,” Moore said.
Baseball will continue to evaluate the development of automation and other rule changes. Although the current job status of umpires is secure, the game will remain focused on putting its best product – whether it’s human umps or robo-umps – on the field.